Lane Pearman
In a recent report, the agency indicated it does not foresee the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz before this year's conclusion, compelling consumers to adjust to limited supplies. The IEA forecasts a decline in global oil demand by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026; although this figure is anticipated to bounce back in 2027 by an amount matching this year's decrease, it suggests there will be no overall growth.
The IEA observed that a decrease of 2.5 million barrels daily would mark the largest year-on-year fall since the 2020 coronavirus pandemic, which halted a significant portion of the global economy. As a result, the organization perceives 2026–2027 as a timeframe of diminished growth for oil demand.
"The drop is mainly influenced by the stalemate in US-Iran talks, persistent interruptions to exports from Gulf countries, and unprecedented fuel prices—especially for diesel—which will place growing downward pressure on demand," the agency's report indicates.
The IEA anticipates that oil prices will keep increasing quickly. In addition, the agency has updated its prediction for worldwide hydrocarbon availability, estimating an annual shortfall of 5.7 million barrels daily, or about 6% (increased from an earlier estimate of 4%). The report suggests that recovery in the Persian Gulf area is anticipated only by 2027.
source: ft.com
The IEA observed that a decrease of 2.5 million barrels daily would mark the largest year-on-year fall since the 2020 coronavirus pandemic, which halted a significant portion of the global economy. As a result, the organization perceives 2026–2027 as a timeframe of diminished growth for oil demand.
"The drop is mainly influenced by the stalemate in US-Iran talks, persistent interruptions to exports from Gulf countries, and unprecedented fuel prices—especially for diesel—which will place growing downward pressure on demand," the agency's report indicates.
The IEA anticipates that oil prices will keep increasing quickly. In addition, the agency has updated its prediction for worldwide hydrocarbon availability, estimating an annual shortfall of 5.7 million barrels daily, or about 6% (increased from an earlier estimate of 4%). The report suggests that recovery in the Persian Gulf area is anticipated only by 2027.
source: ft.com