IEA forecasts decline in global oil refining capacity by 2.5 million bpd in 2026



08/13/2026 10:32 AM


The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a drop in global oil refining capacity of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2026. By 2027, the agency anticipates a recovery of refining capacity by 3.5 million bpd.



Glenn Euloth
In July, worldwide refining capacity rose by 1.8 million bpd, yet stayed almost 5 million bpd under last year's figure, totaling 80.9 million bpd, based on IEA statistics.

According to the report, interruptions in oil product exports from the Middle East and attacks on Russian refineries resulted in a further decrease of 370,000 bpd in the third quarter of 2026 refining capacity estimate.

As per IEA predictions, worldwide oil supply in 2026 will drop by 4.3 million bpd to 102 million bpd, since a rise of 1.4 million bpd in supply from the Americas will only partially counterbalance the decrease in supply from the Middle East and Russia. By 2027, worldwide supply is set to rise by 8.3 million bpd, reaching 110.3 million bpd.

source: iea.org
 


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