Citi analysts forecast decline in Brent crude prices to $62 per barrel in 2026



09/22/2025 6:31 AM


Citi Research analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices will decline to around $60 per barrel by the conclusion of 2025 due to an oversupply in the market.



Jonathan Cutrer via flickr
The baseline projection anticipates that Brent crude prices will average $62 per barrel from the second to the fourth quarter of the upcoming year.

Analysts expect that the oil market will face a surplus of around 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 1.6 million bpd in 2026, as OPEC+ keeps ramping up production with no indications of a substantial rise in worldwide fuel demand.

Citi forecasts that worldwide liquid fuel stocks will hit 10.9 billion barrels by the close of 2026, sufficient to satisfy global consumption for 103 days.

Analysts additionally outlined a pessimistic outcome, projecting a 30% chance of it happening. This situation anticipates declining global oil demand, increased supply expansion from non-OPEC nations, and inadequate compliance with production limits by OPEC+ nations. In this situation, Brent might drop under $60 per barrel and could potentially fall to $50 per barrel.

A favorable situation, having a 10% chance, might drive the Brent price to $75 per barrel if geopolitical occurrences hinder oil deliveries to the worldwide market.

source: marketwatch.com


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